dijap (dijap) wrote,

Дно кризиса?

Розенберг из Merrill Lynch (BOA) писал, что два ключевых сигнала конца кризиса - это дно рынка недвижимости и возобновление кредитования. Вещи простые и понятные, именно поэтому так радостно растет американский рынок после рекордно плохих данных по рынку труда.

Как пишет Paul Ashworth из Capital Economics, "...Even more encouragingly, this latest increase was driven principally by a big rebound in the new orders index to a 7-month high of 41.2, from 33.1. The new orders index has traditionally been the most forward-looking element of the survey. The bottom line, however, is that even after 4 months of improvement the headline index is still down at a level consistent with GDP contracting at a 2% annualised rate. Moreover, the new orders index is still at a level consistent with double-digit annualised declines in orders. In other words, what this survey is really telling us is that after a short period of catastrophe and chaos late last year, conditions in the factory sector are now merely terrible. We expect overall GDP to continue contracting until early next year."

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